Keynote Speakers 1

 Gregory Levitin


Israel Electric Corporation Limited

Haifa, Israel

Title: Optimization of mission abort policies

Abstract: At many instances it is important to keep a system from being destroyed or lost at a cost of not completing its mission. Therefore, to enhance survivability of critical systems performing missions associated with high risks (e.g., aircrafts and human space flight systems), continuation of the system primary task can be aborted and a rescue procedure can be initiated. The ambient conditions during performing the primary task and the rescue procedure can differ. For aborting a mission, some degradation parameter should be observed that characterizes the current state of a system. For instance, this parameter can be a number of elements failed during a mission in a standby system or a number external impacts experienced by a system. The optimal abort policy (mission abort decision rule) should balance a tradeoff either between the mission success probability and system survivability or between the expected monetary losses associated with the uncompleted mission and with the system failure. In this talk analysis and optimization of different optimal static and dynamic mission abort policies will be presented. The optimal system loading during the primary mission and the rescue procedure will also be discussed.

Bio: Prof. Gregory Levitin is presently a senior expert at the Reliability Department of the Israel Electric Corporation and distinguished visiting professor at University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. His current interests are in system reliability and defense. In this field Prof. Levitin has published more than 280 papers and four books. He is senior member of IEEE and chair of the ESRA Technical Committee on System Reliability.  From 2009 to 2016 he served as associate editor of IEEE Transactions on Reliability, area coordinator of International Journal of Performability Engineering. Now he serves as editor of Reliability Engineering & System Safety and member of editorial boards of Journal of Risk and Reliability and Reliability and Quality Performance.
Keynote Speakers 2

Dong Ho Bae


Sungkyunkwan University 

Seoul, Korea

Title: Fatigue Life Prediction and Reliability Assessment of Super Alloy Weld for Green and High Efficiency Thermal Power Plant

Abstract: The most currently, reducing environmental pollution is being raised important issue in thermal power-plant system. The most effective methodology is improving efficient of steam turbine. To improve the performance, increasing operating temperature of system above 700℃is good way to solve. Then it is necessary to develop suitable materials in this extreme condition. Among the materials developed so far, Ni-based super alloys have been good candidates due to their excellent properties such as creep strength, corrosion resistance, heat resistance, and oxidation resistance. However, in order to apply these Ni-based alloys to the steam turbine, it is necessary to develop the welding technology for similar and dissimilar materials, welding residual stress analysis, post-weld heat treatment technology and mechanical property tests under real operating conditions. In low pressure and temperature stage of steam turbine, damages of the rotors and blades are mainly caused by corrosion and corrosion fatigue. Therefore 12Cr steel is also desirable replacement for its corrosion resistance property and in terms of economical prime cost.

In this presentation, following subjects will be introduced; 1. Dissimilar material welding technology between super-Alloy 617 and 12Cr steel, 2. A numerical welding residual stress analysis method simulated actual welding process, and 3. Corrosion fatigue life prediction and reliability assessment based on probability distribution function.

Bio: Dr. Dong Ho Bae received Ph.D in Mechanical Engineering from Nihon University, Tokyo, Japan. He is a senior professor at the School of Mechanical Engineering in Sungkyunkwan University, Korea. His current interests include welding design, micro-joining & welding, environmental strength & fracture mechanics, and life prediction & reliability assessment.  He has published more than 100 papers those are indexed in SCI. He served as a president of reliability division of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers (KSME), general chairman of ICMR2011, 2015, and co-chairman of QR2MSE & ICMR 2013, 2017. He has received excellent paper and academic achievement awards from the KSME. He currently serves as a committee member of Institute of Korean Industrial and Technology Assessment.
Keynote Speakers 3

Serkan Eryilmaz


Atilim University

Ankara, Turkey

Title: Reliability based evaluation of wind power systems

Abstract: Wind enery is one of the rapidly growing renewable energies in the world. A typical wind power system consists of wind turbines which convert the kinetic energy in the wind into electrical energy, and they are the main components of the wind energy system. The power generated by a wind turbine is dependent on wind speed which is random variable. Therefore, the power produced by a wind turbine is also a random variable. There are two sources of randomness for a single wind turbine. The one which is external is concerned with the wind speed, and the other one is related to internal structure, i.e. mechanical state (down or up) of the turbine. Obviously, the latter one is related to reliability of the turbine. Manifestly, both sources have impact on the performance of the turbine, i.e. the power produced by the turbine. In this talk, the reliability based analysis of the capacity of the wind power system will be presented. The usefulness of the results will be demonstrated for some wind speed probability distributions and wind turbine models to evaluate the aggregate power that will be produced by the plant.

Bio: Prof. Serkan Eryilmaz is currently vice president of Atilim University. He is the present co-chair of the System Reliability Technical Committee of the European Safety and Reliability Association. He served as Associate Editor for the IEEE Transactions on Reliability, and is currently serving as an Area Editor of the IISE Transactions-Quality & Reliability Engineering. Professor Eryilmaz’s research interests include reliability, applied probability and stochastic modeling. He is the author of more than 140 publications.
Keynote Speakers 4

Jay Lee


University of Cincinnati

Cincinnati, OH, USA

Title: Recent Advances of Industrial Big Data and AI for Augmented Quality, Maintenance and Reliability Technologies

Bio: Dr. Jay Lee is Ohio Eminent Scholar, L.W. Scott Alter Chair Professor, and Distinguished Univ. Research Professor at the Univ. of Cincinnati and is founding director of National Science Foundation (NSF) Industry/University Cooperative Research Center (I/UCRC) on Intelligent Maintenance Systems ( which is a multi-campus NSF Industry/University Cooperative Research Center which consists of the Univ. of Cincinnati (lead institution), the Univ. of Michigan, Missouri Univ. of S&T, and the Univ. of Texas-Austin.His current research focuses on predictive big data analytics and cyber physical systems, prognostics and health management (PHM), and Industry 4.0 systems. He co-organized the 1st Germany- USA Forum on Cyber Physical Systems and Industry 4.0 held in Munich on Nov. 17-18, 2014 and hosted 2nd US-German Workshop on Industry 4.0 and Industrial Big Data Analytics held at TechSolve in Cincinnati, OH on June 9-10, 2015.

Currently he serves as a senior advisor to McKinsey & Company and S&T advisor to a number of organizations including GE Europe Digital Foundry, Compagnie Plastic Omnium of France, Huawei, etc. He also serves on the Board of Governors of the Manufacturing Executive Leadership Board of Frost & Sullivan, Scientific Committee of SIMTech of Singapore, Leadership Council of MForesight- a NSF/NIST funded Manufacturing Think Tank, as well as Technical Advisory committee (TAC) of Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation (DMDI). In 2013, he was invited to serve on the Advisory Committee member for White House Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) American Challenge Initiative.

He also serves as honorary professor and visiting professor for a number of institutions including Cranfield Univ. in UK, Lulea Univ. of Technology in Sweden, Univ. of Lorraine in France, etc. In addition, he serves as editors and associate editor for a number of journals including IEEE Transaction on Industrial Informatics, Int. Journal on Prognostics & Health Management (IJPHM), Int. Journal on Service Operations and Informatics, etc.

He has authored/co-authored numerous highly influential articles and technical papers in the areas of machinery monitoring and prognostics, E-manufacturing, and intelligent maintenance systems. He has over 20 patents and trademarks. He is a frequently invited speaker and has delivered over 200 keynote and plenary speeches at major international conferences. He is a Fellow of ASME, SME, as well as a founding fellow of International Society of Engineering Asset Management (ISEAM).

Keynote Speakers 5

David W. Coit


Rutgers University

Piscataway, NJ, USA

Title: Advanced Reliability Modeling and Optimization for Systems of Degrading Components

Abstract: New system reliability models and analysis tools have been developed for systems of degrading components. System reliability analyses,involving multiple failure processes, are important and challenging research topics, particularly when failure processes, such as degradation processes and random shocks,are competing and dependent. When component degradation models are extended to complex systems with multiple components, different perspectives of dependency are needed for system reliability modeling. In this talk, potential dependence patterns are investigated among multiple failure processes within and among components in systems and probabilistic models are described to assess system reliability performance. For the reliability modeling of complex systems, if one component in the system degrades or fails prematurely, it is possible that other components will also degrade or fail prematurely given the shared working environment, which means component failure times are dependent. Existing system reliability models are extended to perform quantitativeanalysesfor system reliability considering that the damages to the two failure processes caused by shocks are dependent. Theresearch isorganized into several scenarios, i.e., dependent failure processes are considered in different ways. Stochastically dependent component degradation processes are also studied, and extended gamma process models are used to model the dependent degradation process. Based on these new reliability models, different maintenance policies, including on-condition maintenance, are derived to provide cost effective maintenance plans.

Bio: Prof. David W. Coit is a Professor in the Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering at Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA. His current teaching and research involves system reliability modeling and optimization, and energy systems optimization. His research developing system reliability models has been funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, industry, and power utilities. He has been awarded several NSF grants, including a CAREER grant from NSF to develop new reliability optimization algorithms considering uncertainty. He has over 100 published journal papers and over 90 peer-reviewed conference papers. He has been the recipient of the P. K. McElroy award, Alain O. Plait award and Willian A. J. Golomski award for best papers and tutorials at the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS). In addition to his work at Rutgers, he has been a visiting research fellow at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Beijing, China, and a visiting professor at KMUTT, Bangkok, Thailand. He also has over ten years of industrial experience working for IIT Research Institute (IITRI), Rome NY. He received a BS degree in mechanical engineering from Cornell University, an MBA from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and MS and PhD in industrial engineering from the University of Pittsburgh. He is an Associate Editor for IISE Transactions, Special Issue Editor for Reliability Engineering & System Safety, and a Department Editor for Journal of Risk and Reliability, and he is a member of IIE and INFORMS.
Keynote Speakers 6

Won Young Yun


Pusan National University

Busan, Korea

Title: Redundancy and Maintenance Optimization Problems in Modularized Systems

Abstract: This talk considers modularized systems with tree structures and introduce two optimization problems related to system reliability and maintenance. The modularized system has a hierarchical structure in design phase and has several modules. Each module also consists of some components and lower-level modules.

As the first optimization problem, it is assumed that the basic modular structure (tree structure) is given and we would like to improve the system reliability by adding redundant units of modules and components. Existing papers in redundancy optimization problems of modularized systems which propose various optimization models and use different algorithms are summarized. Three different mathematical models are studied: Multi-level redundancy allocation (MRAP), multiple multi-level redundancy allocation, and availability-based MRAP models. Many meta-heuristics have been applied to find optimal solutions in the several optimization problems. We summarized key idea of meta-heuristics applied to the existing MARP problems. An integrated optimization problem of MRAP and preventive maintenance are studied.

As the second optimization problem, an optimization problem is studied after the redundancy optimization phase, in which maintenance units (line replaceable units:LRU) in modularized systems are determined. When some components fail, then the system fails and we should maintain correctively the system. We can replace the failed components or the module with the failed components. We want to determine the maintenance units(LRU) in the modularized system with hierarchical structure. The system availability and total maintenance cost are used as optimization criteria. A genetic algorithm is proposed to find the optimal solutions. Numerical examples are also studied.

Finally, we propose an integrated optimization problem in modularized systems for further study.

BioProf. Won Young Yun is a Professor in Department of Industrial Engineering, Pusan National University,  Korea. He received his B.S. degree in Industrial Engineering from Seoul National University, Korea, in 1982 and his M.S. and Ph. D. degrees in Industrial Engineering from KAIST, Korea, in 1984 and 1988, respectively. His research interest includes maintenance optimization of complex systems, spare-parts problems and simulation applications in reliability and maintenance. He has published his papers in international journals of reliability and operations research, for example, IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Reliability and System Safety, IIE Transactions, International Journal of Production Economics, etc.
Keynote Speakers 7

Kaigui Xie


Chongqing University

Chongqing, China

Title: Tracing the Unreliability Contributions and Recognizing Weak Parts of Complex Systems

Abstract: In many situations, a utility would like to know how much each component in a system contributes to the unreliability consequences. Weak parts analysis of a system is a key part of the system reliability quantification process. It enables the weakest areas of a system to be recognized and proposes the remedial measures for improving the system reliability. This presentation presents a novel idea for recognizing weak parts using the unreliability-tracing technique. It proposes the unreliability-tracing principles, the model for tracing the reliability of complex systems. In addition, unreliability- tracing- sharing- factor (UTSF) for system unreliability is derived to easily recognize the major- unreliability- contributions (MUCs) of a system. The proposed method was tested by using general complex systems and electric power systems. The results show that the developed technique can be extensively applied to complex systems for unreliability-tracing and recognizing the MUCs.

BioProf. Kaigui Xie was born in 1972 in Sichuan, P.R. China. He received the Ph.D. degree in Power System and Its Automation at Chongqing University, Chongqing, China, in 2001. Currently, he is a full professor in the School of Electrical Engineering, Chongqing University, China. His main research interests focus on the areas of power system reliability, planning and analysis. He is the team leader of more than 80 academic projects, including six projects under the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and three projects under the National key Research and Development Program of China. He is awarded the title of National Science Fund for Outstanding Young Scholar, an IET fellow and an IEEE senior member; the chair of International Technical Advisory Committee of the 13th IEEE-PMAPS 2016; editor of the IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, associate editor of IET Proceedings-Generation, Transmission and Distribution, and a member of editorial boards of EPCS (Electric Power Components and Systems) and MPCE (Modern Power System and Clean Energy) journals. He is the author and coauthor of over 200 academic papers and six books.